Looking round the US right now is a bit like Alice in Wonderland (but not the big-earning version by Tim Burton which looks to beat the one billion mark in takings worldwide). There’s a lot of unreality around and it all goes back to one of these pesky idioms, “Trying to get blood from a stone”. Let’s take it step by step. In the world of boxing, you introduce the fighters according to their corners. So, in the blue corner, you have the lefty socialist liberals and they all want to keep the entitlement spending without increasing taxes. While in the red corner, you have all those Tea Party members who want to do away with government and all its spending on little things like defense and the infrastructure that delivers electricity, drinking water and so on. Oh, and they don’t want to raise taxes either. In fact, abolishing big government means no IRS. So, whoever you ask, they all agree it’s impossible to raise taxes (”starve the beast” as the GOP puts it) but, without more money coming from somewhere, it will be impossible to balance the budget. Does balancing the budget matter? Well, ask Greece whether they should balance their budget. Once the riots die down, you may have an answer. In the meantime, the world’s lenders think Greece will default on its debts. In ten years time, without action from the US government (big or small), the same fear may affect the US power to borrow.

So, right now, states cannot raise taxes and face paying out on entitlements. The majority are licensing more gambling. The levy is not counted as a tax and is politically acceptable. Except, there’s too much gambling already. No matter how many casinos or other sites you licence, there’s still the same number of gamblers. Hence, the reference to “blood from stone”. It’s going to be very difficult for states to get any real increase in revenue, particularly when you add in the effect of online gambling. With rising gas prices and family budgets still under pressure because of the recession, it’s cheaper and more convenient to stay home to gamble.

So, let’s pick a few states and see what plans are in the pipeline. Go to Boston and you find yourself in a war zone with New Hampshire, Connecticut and Rhode Island all pushing their own gambling agendas. Wherever you look, there are plans for new resort-casinos and thousands of slot machines at race tracks and dedicated slots parlors. With all these states in competition to attract the same hard-core gamblers, they all risk ending up with little improvement to their revenue streams. More interestingly, you have to doubt the commercial judgement of the corporations still prepared to consider building new casinos. Just as the states have looming deficits to fill, many of the existing casinos have fallen on hard times as online slots have grown more popular. Indeed, if the GOP and its Tea Party element are against big government, they should oppose the use of gambling to prop up state finances. Surely, the libertarian stays home to play slots, keeps all the winnings and pays no taxes, direct or indirect.

Just as we all used to follow the form of horses – think the Great Depression and the success of Seabiscuit to see we all love a champion – the latest form book covers the race among US states to balance their budgets. Of course, everyone has been focussing on California with Arnold Schwarzenegger leading the charge to the winning post on getting the budget signed into law. He has enough strength for arm twisting and ‘gator wrassling to bulldoze the bill through. But Pennsylvania is just as interesting with the Governor’s office matching California’s use of IOUs by refusing to pay funds to the four state universities. Probably someone somewhere is running a book on which US state will be the first to declare itself bankrupt. These would be the front runners among an alarming number of states lacking initial prudence and the political will to raise taxes, to cut spending, or both.

Anyway, the real point of interest in Pennsylvania is the growing threat of litigation from the group of license holders who run slot machines. When the licenses were first issued, the state sold maximum exclusivity for a high fee (that’s $50 million a license). The enabling law is very clear. No other gambling outlet will be allowed to compete directly with the market for slot machines. At the time, this looked a good deal for both sides. Gambling was a popular activity and the state benefited from a generous input to its finances. Fast forward and the recession has forced people to cut back on their discretionary spending. This means less money to spend on trips to gamble. Ironically, the casino operators to benefit from this have been online. Had it not been for the changes in the law making it difficult to move money into and out of the online casino accounts, they would have cleaned up. So this leaves the current license holders under pressure with building work on some of the proposed casino and resort sites put on hold. While the government finds an expanding black hole eating up its cash reserves as tax revenue falls. The state’s answer is proposals to increase the number of slot machines allowed in the existing resorts and to license new resorts. To the existing license holders, this looks like plans to allow direct competition from new operators. They are up in arms with their attorneys slavering on the end of a short leash, just waiting for the chance to sue.

There’s no doubt slots still represents a pot of gold for both the license holders and the state. The machines are still a big draw even though the recession is biting hard. But this plan looks like an expansion too far. The average spend has dropped. If the state increases the number of machines, this will only spread the same amount of money around more machines. It’s not going to increase the size of the spend. This leaves the state with a growing hole in its accounts and the existing license holders with a good case in contract and constitutional law. With the online casinos introducing new slots games every month and keeping up player interest, this is no time to be fighting over a reducing market in the real world.

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